Iran?

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Iran?

Philippe|Wiki
Just wondering whether anyone's had a check in from any of our  
wikimedians in Iran?  Any safety reports on our folks?

Philippe




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Re: Iran?

Milos Rancic-2
On Sat, Jun 20, 2009 at 3:00 PM, philippe<[hidden email]> wrote:
> Just wondering whether anyone's had a check in from any of our
> wikimedians in Iran?  Any safety reports on our folks?

Good question. I just know that Mardetanha (a steward) is physically
good and frustrated with election results. But, he is not living in
Tehran. I'll ask people at fa.wp to send to me information what is
going on with them.

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Re: Iran?

Philippe|Wiki
Thanks, Milos... i was concerned about Mardetanha because of my  
connection to him on Elec Comm, good to know he's well.  Now let's see  
what we can find out about the rest of our folks!

Thanks.



On Jun 20, 2009, at 9:21 AM, Milos Rancic wrote:

> Good question. I just know that Mardetanha (a steward) is physically
> good and frustrated with election results. But, he is not living in
> Tehran. I'll ask people at fa.wp to send to me information what is
> going on with them.


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Re: Iran?

Milos Rancic-2
I've got the first report. There are no information that something
happened to any Wikimedian.

Take a look at [1]. I don't expect bigger scale problems in Iran, but
not just because of that analysis. Except theocratic structures,
preset situation in Iran reminds me a lot to the situation in Serbia
during late period of Milosevic. State structures without connection
to reality have to reform themselves or they'll be replaced.
Fortunately, [ordinary] Iranians don't want war because still fresh
memories to war between Iraq and Iran. The situation was similar in
2000 in Serbia.

[1] - http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html

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Re: Iran?

Ray Saintonge
Milos Rancic wrote:

> I've got the first report. There are no information that something
> happened to any Wikimedian.
>
> Take a look at [1]. I don't expect bigger scale problems in Iran, but
> not just because of that analysis. Except theocratic structures,
> preset situation in Iran reminds me a lot to the situation in Serbia
> during late period of Milosevic. State structures without connection
> to reality have to reform themselves or they'll be replaced.
> Fortunately, [ordinary] Iranians don't want war because still fresh
> memories to war between Iraq and Iran. The situation was similar in
> 2000 in Serbia.
>
> [1] - http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html
>  
Nuclear weaponry in Iran may a concern to powerful western countries,
but I don't see it as being a major factor in the country's internal
politics.
  While there may very well have been widespread fraud, that alone
wouldn't be enough to explain away a 29 percentage point spread.  A
strong line of national security scare-mongering is always good source
of votes in the less educated parts of a country. We hear a lot about
what is happening in Tehran, but very little about the rest of the country.

Ec

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Re: Iran?

Robert Rohde
On Sat, Jun 20, 2009 at 2:07 PM, Ray Saintonge <[hidden email]> wrote:

>  While there may very well have been widespread fraud, that alone
> wouldn't be enough to explain away a 29 percentage point spread.  A
> strong line of national security scare-mongering is always good source
> of votes in the less educated parts of a country. We hear a lot about
> what is happening in Tehran, but very little about the rest of the country.


It's easy to explain any margin you want when there are no monitors, no
reporting of local tallies, and vote aggregation is controlled by a small
group in one government agency.  It's basically a matter of changing numbers
in a spreadsheet.

Regardless of what actually happened, it is pretty clear that the process of
voting in Iran lacks the fundamental transparency necessary to provide
confidence in the results.

-Robert Rohde
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Re: Iran?

Tomasz Ganicz
In reply to this post by Ray Saintonge
2009/6/20 Ray Saintonge <[hidden email]>:

> Milos Rancic wrote:
>> I've got the first report. There are no information that something
>> happened to any Wikimedian.
>>
>> Take a look at [1]. I don't expect bigger scale problems in Iran, but
>> not just because of that analysis. Except theocratic structures,
>> preset situation in Iran reminds me a lot to the situation in Serbia
>> during late period of Milosevic. State structures without connection
>> to reality have to reform themselves or they'll be replaced.
>> Fortunately, [ordinary] Iranians don't want war because still fresh
>> memories to war between Iraq and Iran. The situation was similar in
>> 2000 in Serbia.
>>
>> [1] - http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html
>>
> Nuclear weaponry in Iran may a concern to powerful western countries,
> but I don't see it as being a major factor in the country's internal
> politics.
>  While there may very well have been widespread fraud, that alone
> wouldn't be enough to explain away a 29 percentage point spread.  A
> strong line of national security scare-mongering is always good source
> of votes in the less educated parts of a country. We hear a lot about
> what is happening in Tehran, but very little about the rest of the country.
>

Believe me that it is possibly to fraud an election and shift the real
results completely :-) History knows many of such examples.

See for example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_people%27s_referendum,_1946

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_general_election,_1946

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Vietnam_referendum,_1955

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_fraud

I don't know if it happened in Iran or not - I think we will know it
for sure not eariler that 50 years from know, or maybe even never...

--
Tomek "Polimerek" Ganicz
http://pl.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Polimerek
http://www.ganicz.pl/poli/
http://www.ptchem.lodz.pl/en/TomaszGanicz.html

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Re: Iran?

Ray Saintonge
In reply to this post by Robert Rohde
Robert Rohde wrote:

> On Sat, Jun 20, 2009 at 2:07 PM, Ray Saintonge <[hidden email]> wrote:
>  
>>  While there may very well have been widespread fraud, that alone
>> wouldn't be enough to explain away a 29 percentage point spread.  A
>> strong line of national security scare-mongering is always good source
>> of votes in the less educated parts of a country. We hear a lot about
>> what is happening in Tehran, but very little about the rest of the country.
>>    
> It's easy to explain any margin you want when there are no monitors, no
> reporting of local tallies, and vote aggregation is controlled by a small
> group in one government agency.  It's basically a matter of changing numbers
> in a spreadsheet.
>
> Regardless of what actually happened, it is pretty clear that the process of
> voting in Iran lacks the fundamental transparency necessary to provide
> confidence in the results.
Sure, transparency is a problem, but its absence alone does not imply
fraud.  It hurts the Iranian authorities even more if the vote count is
accurate because nobody believes them.

Ec

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Re: Iran?

David Gerard-2
2009/6/21 Ray Saintonge <[hidden email]>:

> Sure, transparency is a problem, but its absence alone does not imply
> fraud.  It hurts the Iranian authorities even more if the vote count is
> accurate because nobody believes them.


Evidence the numbers were made up: humans are not very good at picking
random numbers:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/20/AR2009062000004.html

(This is way off-topic ...)


- d.

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Re: Iran?

Nathan Awrich
On Sun, Jun 21, 2009 at 10:00 AM, David Gerard <[hidden email]> wrote:

>
>
> Evidence the numbers were made up: humans are not very good at picking
> random numbers:
>
>
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/20/AR2009062000004.html
>
> (This is way off-topic ...)


Convincing, surely, but not as definitive as reports that the Interior
Ministry in Tehran (where votes are counted) remained closed during and
after the election, with doors locked against employees who would otherwise
be tallying ballots.
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Re: Iran?

Nikola Smolenski
In reply to this post by David Gerard-2
David Gerard wrote:
> 2009/6/21 Ray Saintonge <[hidden email]>:
>> Sure, transparency is a problem, but its absence alone does not imply
>> fraud.  It hurts the Iranian authorities even more if the vote count is
>> accurate because nobody believes them.
>
> Evidence the numbers were made up: humans are not very good at picking
> random numbers:
>
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/20/AR2009062000004.html

Evidence disappears when spoiled ballots are included:
http://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/8ufal/at_last_a_statistical_smoking_gun_at_the_995/c0agxwd

(Haven't checked myself though.)

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